{"id":3759,"date":"2025-08-27T14:11:11","date_gmt":"2025-08-27T17:11:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rbrasset.resultate.site\/?p=3759"},"modified":"2026-01-29T16:47:56","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T19:47:56","slug":"paper-timing-de-mercado","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/novorbrasset.resultate.site\/en\/blog\/paper-timing-de-mercado\/","title":{"rendered":"Artigo | Timing de Mercado"},"content":{"rendered":"

The evolution of the real Estate investment Funds<\/h2>\n

The industry with the Sief, is a relatively new, the IFIX was the beginning of the end of 2010. In a little more than 15 years of history in the real Estate investment Funds have gained prominence and notoriety, reaching out to more than <\/span>$ 300 million is traded for the day<\/span>with a <\/span>for a total value of$ 140 billion <\/span>and it's more than <\/span>At 2.7 million from investors<\/span>. Increasingly, institutional and other sectors have begun to cover the investment in this sector, including the following: <\/span>pension funds<\/span>, <\/span>funds and hedge funds <\/span>and <\/span>international sources<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The evolution of the industry and also the <\/span>the consolidation of the new areas<\/span>. At first, the IFIX is basically composed of the Sief (Brick), a number of them <\/span>funds and liabilities, and\/or monoativos<\/span>. Over time, the fund management actively seized of the underlying index, as well as in new sectors, such as the funding of the Irb, FOFs, and, more recently, Hedge Funds). Currently, the <\/span>The class of the Brick represents 55% of the index <\/span>and <\/span>A class Paper <\/span>(Wallace, FOFs, Hedge Funds) <\/span>45%<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Also, from the point of view of the management of funds in the IFIX, interesting moves have occurred since the pandemic today. In 2020, the top 10 managers and administrators <\/span>73% of the index<\/span>while 17 per cent were managed by the 24 management <\/span>a total of 34 in IFIX<\/span>. With the increase in the liquidity and macro-economic conditions are favourable, in 2021 and 2022, <\/span>the new management came on the market in<\/span>by reducing the <\/span>the concentration of the top-10 of 62% <\/span>and increase the <\/span>the total number of managing up to 50<\/span>. Already in 2023, and 2024, the best vehicles and have won the most space, with emissions in excess of$ 1 billion, raising the bar once again with the merger of the <\/span>Top 10 largest for-71%<\/span>in addition to the movement of the <\/span>the consolidation of the management team led by the Motherland<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

When you review the total returns, the <\/span>IFIX has tripled in the capital city of the investor<\/span>even going through an economic crisis, and the political, as of 2015-2016, the COVID-19 and high inflation. This is because it symbolizes the <\/span>the essence of the real Estate investment Funds<\/span>: <\/span>commercial and residential buildings, warehouses, Chris, and shopping malls, to protect the capital from an investor, in the long term, even as a hedge against inflation<\/span>. Because of this, the real estate market represents <\/span>the greater the allocation of capital in the world.<\/span><\/p>\n

With an understanding of the present moment<\/h2>\n

In order to understand the current situation, it is important to understand the relationship between the Sief with the macroeconomic situation, which is represented by the NTN-B <\/span>Real estate in general, as compared to a <\/span>bonds, long-duration <\/i><\/b>in this case, the NTN-B and in the long run. This is because they pass on the increase in their rent, they will protect your core and give you a <\/span>dividend yield <\/span><\/i>the applicant. With this, it's only natural <\/span>Treasury variations serve as a benchmark for the pricing of FIIs.<\/span><\/p>\n

In August, 2024, the <\/span>NTN-B-2035 was traded to 5.80 per cent<\/span>. Since then, the stream of negative news related to the risk of tax, in addition to the turmoil of the world, with the escalation of the armed conflict and warfare, trade, led to the negotiation of the <\/span>NTN-B, 7.8%<\/span>to <\/span>at a higher rate over the last 15 years<\/span>, which can be compared only to the levels of 2015-16, <\/span>reflecting the increase in the sovereign risk<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a result, the Sief, as well as nearly all of the asset classes in Brazil is reflected in the increase in the risk of a fall in prices in the stock market.<\/span><\/p>\n

In January, in the year 2025, the IFIX is trading at a discount greater than <\/span>18% of the equity value of the<\/span>a rank lower than that of the peak of the pandemic, when the <\/span>a discount 16%<\/span>next to the <\/span>the crisis of 2015-16 (24%) <\/span>. It is worth noting that, at present, the index is composed of the <\/span>45% of the Sief Paper<\/span>, which, by their nature, are supposed to be the least impacted during times of stress.<\/span><\/p>\n

By analyzing separately the <\/span>Sief in IFIX <\/span>they are being dealt with in a <\/span>the discount is 12%<\/span>while the Sief-of-the Brick show is a <\/span>the discount is 21%<\/span>. At the peak of the pandemic, they arrived in at 14.5% and 17.8%, respectively.<\/span><\/p>\n

One point to note is important to assess the risk of each operation in order to determine the impact of the current is based on the structural issues. About <\/span>65% of the flow in the buying and selling of Sief is created by investors and individuals<\/span>it is not surprising that happen <\/span>the distortions in the pricing of fixed assets<\/span>both the positive and the negative.<\/span><\/p>\n

Overshooting<\/h2>\n
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In parallel, in 2015-16, the economic situation was different. We have seen a fall in the GDP of the -3,15% in 2015, and -2,90% by the end of 2016.<\/p>\n

In that scenario, even a portfolio of premium shopping malls have faced declines in the real value of the sales of 8.0% in 2015, and -4,15% by the end of 2016. The negative impact on the logistics sector has been highlighted by the highest level of peers (21.8% more) for the last 12 years, as well as the decrease in the average selling prices for the lease of a down by 3.6%. Inflation in 2016 was 6.3%, with the impact of actual losses were down 9.3%. Outside, in the year of the pandemic, 2016 was the only year in which it had a net absorption of negative (-120 thousand m2) in the business sector in s\u00e3o paulo, brazil.<\/p>\n

In short, the price of the Sief were allocated on the basis bedrooms operations have been greatly impacted as well.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n

Conversely, in 2024, the same as a portfolio of premium shopping malls mentioned, showed an average annual growth of sales of 3.3 percent above the inflation rate. The logistics industry has reached its lowest level of the vacancy of the story (8,17%). Even in the sector of the slab business, which has been highly impacted by the pandemic, has had the most successful year of the absorption of the liquid that you have already registered, featuring over 484 billion m2 in s\u00e3o paulo, brazil.<\/p>\n

Even with a lot of news on the operational positive, as you can see from the graph above that of the real Estate Funds that are currently being traded at levels similar to those in 2015-16. The <\/span>The Dividend Yield of the IFIX current exceeds a decline of 14.8% a a. a a.<\/span>by generating a <\/span>the spread of 7.0%, compared to the NTN-B, the highest in the last 15 years<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

In view of the RBR, we may be facing a \u2018overshooting <\/i>\u2018 a reprecifica\u00e7\u00e3o exaggerated the price of a Sief is the basics of operating that are not being adequately addressed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Different industries, different upsides<\/h2>\n

The IFIX can be divided into two clusters, the main ones: <\/span>Brick (55%) <\/span>and <\/span>The paper (45%)<\/span>.<\/span> We classify the class of Brick in the five largest sectors are presented side by side. <\/span>Your review<\/span>\u00a0it is made up of the funds that are most representative of each area.<\/span><\/p>\n

In general, the industries of the americas are being dealt with in a <\/span>Dividend Yield<\/span>\u00a0between 10% and 12%, respectively <\/span>. In addition to this, with the re-lease of inflation,<\/span>\u00a0we can infer that with a load of <\/span>IPC-a + 10% to 12%<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition, we evaluate the fair value of the assets within the fund. This<\/span>\u00a0the assessment generates a <\/span>Fair Cap Rate* <\/i><\/b>the funds and, consequently, to the board.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>In the past year, almost all of the real estate transactions in the private sector were <\/span>Cap Rate <\/i><\/b>coming from 8.0% to 9.0%<\/span>in line with our assessment.<\/span><\/p>\n

The goal is to figure out the fair value of the asset is to compare it to the value of the implicit traded on the stock exchange, thus allowing an estimate of the capital gains from time to time. The <\/span>Implied Cap Rate <\/i><\/b>it takes into account the prices of the market, which are impaired, resulting in a distortion is significant in relation to the <\/span>Fair-Cap Rate <\/i><\/b>. The <\/span>gain capital is estimated<\/span>Source code <\/i><\/b>ranges from 20% to 40%<\/span>with the expectation of conduct from time to time.<\/span><\/p>\n

If we assume a premise of the conservative wing of the convergence of the fair value over a period of five years, and to add to the load shown in the above, we've designed an IRR of 20% to 30% a year for the Brick.<\/p>\n

Sief Paper is worth it?<\/h2>\n
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Unlike most of the fund-of-the Brick, the funding of the Study, and FOFs have dial-up monthly to-market (MTM) in stockholders ' equity (SE), which is that the bill has already reflect changes in the market. In addition to this, the special fund for the income to invest in the debt, and not on economic and monetary affairs, would provide an additional level of protection to the capital to the investor.<\/p>\n

In doing so, the Sief BELIEVED to actually have a lower volatility. However, the field of Study is 12% below the value of the equity, which has been negatively affected by the marking on the NTN-B; in This way, the investment in such a Sief does not configure it as an argument to load, but it is also an opportunity for capital gains.<\/p>\n

Following a methodology similar to that of a Sief is the Brick, to the analysis of the Sief, the IRB evaluates each asset, the setting of a fee for each transaction, based on the curve of interest is present. We start from the premise that the market price of convergir\u00e3o to book value (P) in the course of the duration, the average portfolio (between the ages of 3 and 5 years of age), because they are in debt, with a schedule of payments that you set. To add a discount to the rate RANGE of your wallet, and you get the rate implicit in the market. The difference between the market rate and the rate of a fair (a fair) is the potential for increase in value (code) of each of the FUNDS.<\/p>\n

Among the four subclasses, only the High Grade FIIs allocated to CDI are trading above NAV and are seen as a cash alternative. Finally, when we apply the market discount to the return estimated by the portfolio's fair rate adjusted for duration, we project a return of between IPCA + 12% and IPCA + 14% for IPCA-indexed FIIs.<\/p>\n

Performance is Historical and Multiestrat\u00e9gia RBR<\/h2>\n
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Read the loops in real estate, combined with the view on the basis of all the decisions of the RBR. We begin the management of the early wallets that are administered for the past 10 years, in the same spirit. Especially in times of crisis, the performance of the portfolio, RBR was highlighted in relation to the IFIX, and the INJECTORS. We 2024, with a overall performance of the +301% (15.8 per cent per year), which corresponds to the CDI + 6,10% per year, and IPC + 9,83% per year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n

Performance Is Historical And The Funds Are Listed<\/h2>\n
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By 2024, the IFIX has recorded a decline of 5.9 per cent, as well as the wallet for the RBR in the table above. In times of challenging the fundamentals of the investments that tend to stand out. The RBR Alpha (RBRF11), and RBR in the Hedge Fund RBRX11) showed the best performance metric for the PL + Dividends paid by 2024, compared to their peers. Although the sources of return are distinct, they share the same base, a strategic reading of the cycles of real estate, and a fundamentalist approach.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The FII industry is relatively new; IFIX started at the end of 2010. In just over 15 years of history, Real Estate Funds have gained relevance and notoriety, reaching more than R$ 300 million traded per day, with a total value of R$ 140 billion and more than 2.7 million investors. Increasingly, institutional investors from other segments have started to cover and invest in the sector, including: pension funds, multimarket funds and international indices.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3009,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,62],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3759","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-artigos","category-imobiliario-brasil"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/novorbrasset.resultate.site\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3759","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/novorbrasset.resultate.site\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/novorbrasset.resultate.site\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/novorbrasset.resultate.site\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/novorbrasset.resultate.site\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3759"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/novorbrasset.resultate.site\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3759\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7513,"href":"https:\/\/novorbrasset.resultate.site\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3759\/revisions\/7513"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/novorbrasset.resultate.site\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3009"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/novorbrasset.resultate.site\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3759"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/novorbrasset.resultate.site\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3759"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/novorbrasset.resultate.site\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3759"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}